Women in State Legislatures
December 2002
Alison Hayes, Jillian Celozzi, and John Bevilacqua

We predict that the number of women serving in state legislatures in the year 2001 is higher than it was in 1996, due to the recent gains women were making in politics. The three variables we have chosen to test this hypothesis are education, political culture, and the percentage of republican state legislators serving in a particular state.

F test - Measure of statistical significance with a known sampling distibution.

beta coefficient - Measure of a regression slope in terms of the standard deviation for that variable; allows us to compare the influence of several variable

Education

The variable education measures the percent of the population twenty-five years and over with a bachelor's degree or more. An F test shows that there is a relationship between the number of women state legislators and the level of education in the state's population. The statistical significance, as determined by the F test, measures at .025, which establishes a significant correlation between the number of women in state legislatures within a state and the percentage of the population with a bachelor's degree in that state. The likelihood of this finding occurring by chance within a random sampling is less than twenty- five in a thousand. That is, based on this sample, there is a very small probability that there is no relationship in the population. The standardized beta coefficient measures at .341. In a regression analysis, education increasing by one unit will in turn increase the percentage of women in the state legislature by .341 units.

Political Culture

Political culture, as written by Daniel Elazar, argues that the United States shares a general political culture that is, in turn, a synthesis of three major subcultures. He has identified the three major subcultures as individualist, moralist, and traditionalist. In the individualist subculture the market is emphasized. The role of the government is limited and exists primarily to keep the market functioning properly. Material incentives motivate politicians to run for office in order to advance themselves professionally. Bureaucracy is viewed negatively as a deterrent to the spoil system. Political competition tends to be partisan and oriented toward gaining office rather than dealing with issues. The individualist view of politics originated with English and German groups who settled the Middle Atlantic colonies. As these groups moved westward into New York and Pennsylvania, the lower Midwest, Missouri and the western states, they brought along the belief that government's role should be sharply limited (Gray, Hanson, and Jacob, 23).

The moralist subculture completely contrasts the individualist subculture, in that it emphasized the commonwealth. Followers of this view believe that the government's role is to advance the public's interest or the good of the commonwealth. They believe that government is a positive force in the lives of citizens. Politics revolve around issues and politicians run for office based on these issues. This view was brought to the United States by the Puritans, who settled New England in a series of religious communities. Followers of these values settled in the Midwest and upper Northwest.

The third subculture, the traditionalist, holds an ambivalent attitude toward the market and the commonwealth. Under this philosophy government's purpose is to maintain the existing social and economic hierarchy. Politicians usually come from society's elite. Many of these politicians feel pressured by their family's social status to run for political office. Ordinary citizens are not expected to vote, let alone run for office. The traditionalist values were brought to this country by the people who originally settled the southern colonies. Their descendents moved westward throughout the southern states and into the southwest. According to Elazar, fewer people participate in politics in these states and government's role is limited to maintaining the existing social order (Gray, Hanson, and Jacob, 23).

Our data shows that moralistic states have on average, the highest percentage of women serving in the state legislature, with a mean of 26.9294. Individualist states have a lower percentage of women serving, with a mean of 22.7059. The lowest percentage of women serving in the state legislature was found in the traditionalistic states, with an average percentage of only 17.4875.

An F test shows that there is a strong relationship between the percentage of women serving in a state legislature and the political subculture of that state. The statistical significance, as determined by the F test, measures at .001, which establishes a highly significant correlation between the number of women in state legislatures and political culture. The likelihood of this finding occurring by chance within a random sampling is less than one in a thousand. That is, based on this sample, there is a very small probability that there is no relationship in the population.

Percentage of Republicans Serving in State Legislature

Recently, the United States population is becoming more conservative. The 2002 election produced both a Senate and House controlled by the Republican Party. Since women are usually democrats, we assumed this shift towards republicanism would be a reason for the recent decline in women state legislators. However, our data shows that states with a higher percentage of republicans serving in the state legislature have less of a decline in the percentage of women legislators than in states with a lower percentage of republicans. An F test measures at .007, which is highly significant, showing that there is a strong correlation between the percentage ofrepublicans serving within the state legislature and the decline of women in state legislature between 1996 and 2001.

This can be attributed to a general unhappiness with the efforts of the Democratic Party. More and more, women are finding that the Democratic Party is not serving their needs and they are looking to the Republican Party to advance their interests. In 1995 figures showed that there was a thirty-seven percent increase in the number of GOP women who filed to run for office nationwide, while the Democrats suffered a thirteen percent decrease. As a result, there was a sixty-seven percent increase in the number of Republican women who held federal or gubernatorial office, and a twenty-three percent decrease in the number of elected Democratic women (McPhail, 19).

Conclusion

During the time between 1996 and 2001, there was an overall decline in the percentage of women serving in the state legislature. Our research demonstrates a strong relationship between political culture, education, and the percentage of republican legislators serving in a state and the decline of women serving in the state legislature between 1996 and 2001. Moralistic states have a higher percentage of women serving in their state legislatures than both individualistic and traditionalistic states. States with a higher percentage of the population twenty-five years and over with a bachelor's degree or more resulted in a higher percentage of women serving in the state legislature. Although women in the past have been closely aligned with the Democratic Party, studies show that there has been an overall increase in women serving as republicans. As a result, states with a higher percentage of republicans in the legislature have less of a decline in the percentage of women serving in the state legislature between 1996 and 2001.

Women remain underrepresented in state legislatures despite considerable social progress. The 1992 election cycle brought the biggest gains for women; however, it was perhaps more of a milestone than it was a turning point. In addition to the relatively low numbers of elected women, some observers are troubled by other signs of an uphill battle (Christian Science Monitor, 1). The decreases in women candidates are worrisome because state legislatures are vital for women. The legislature can be an important steppingstone for a candidate seeking higher office. If women are not successful at winning public office in the state legislature, it will create a glass ceiling, making it nearly impossible for women to serve as governors or as president.

Works Cited